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It’s that time of year again, when we can all grouse about the inanity of the Oscars: how the Academy ignores blockbusters or ignores indie films or ignores people of color. Only this time, there seems less to grouse about than usual. There are snubs here and there of course (cough, Amy Adams), and actors who through error or pretense find themselves in the wrong categories. But overall the Academy did a pretty credible job this time—credible enough that for this year I’m abandoning my customary categories of “who was nominated but shouldn’t have been” and “who wasn’t nominated but should have been.”

But who is going to win? Before attempting to answer that question, I should disclose that I’ve gone 25 for 30 on my picks over the last three years (you can find them <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/02/my-2016-oscar-predictions/471027/">here</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/02/my-2015-oscar-predictions/385655/">here</a>, and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/02/my-2014-oscar-predictions/284125/">here</a>), but I missed on Best Picture last year. (I thought The Revenant would beat Spotlight, and I was delighted to be wrong.) It is also perhaps worth noting that I was so spectacularly certain that Avatar would beat The Hurt Locker back in 2010 that I wrote an <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/73539/buy-me-love">entire article</a> on the subject. (In that case, I was even happier to be wrong.) Also, as before, I’m only going through ten of the top categories, so if you need help with your picks for sound editing or live-action short, you’ll have to seek assistance elsewhere.

So keep all that in mind. As always, I obviously cannot condone any form of gambling, and will in no way consider it my fault if anyone happens to lose money based on my advice. Anyone who makes a little scratch, by contrast, and might be inclined to share it with their Oscar Whisperer, will find me easy enough to track down. Those curious about my own end-of-the-year awards, some of which are notably eccentric, can find them <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/12/the-best-movies-of-2016/511049/">here</a>.

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="438" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/xLLL_D13_02600_R/988176bbe.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">A still from La La Land (Lionsgate / Summit)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Picture

Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

This has long been, and remains, La La Land’s race to lose. It’s become fashionable to lament that this is a bad thing and it would be better if Moonlight were to win instead. There are perhaps good arguments to be made on this score, but most of the arguments being made aren’t very good.

It is without question a promising sign that Moonlight, a movie about the romance between two black men coming of age in inner-city Miami, directed by a black man, is not only a Best Picture nominee but a genuine contender to win. This is especially true given the Academy’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/oscarssowhite">much-noted</a> shortcomings over the last couple of years.

But the widespread critique that La La Land is “only” the frontrunner because it is about Hollywood’s love for itself dramatically shortchanges Damien Chazelle’s film, which is a tremendously ambitious undertaking on its own terms, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/12/la-la-land-review-damien-chazelle-ryan-gosling-emma-stone/510092/">novel and nostalgic in equal measure</a>. This is not The Artist. Should La La Land come away with the statue, as I strongly suspect it will, it will mean nothing other than that it was a terrific film.

If you’re looking for the upset, definitely go with Moonlight. If you’re looking for a really big upset, try Manchester by the Sea or Hidden Figures. If you want an upset even bigger than that, buy a lottery ticket.

What will win: La La Land

What ought to win: Arrival

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="419" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/LLL_D10_01983_R/33a75c2d1.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">Damien Chazelle on the set of La La Land (Dale Robinette / Lionsgate / Summit)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Director

Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

The big surprise here, of course, is that Mel Gibson was nominated, despite the facts that a) Hacksaw Ridge was good but not great; and b) not so long ago, Gibson had a very-well-earned reputation as a depraved maniac. But Hollywood can be forgiving, especially <a href="http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/mel-gibson-best-director-oscars.html">if you have the right friends</a>.

In any case, Mel will not be repeating his Braveheart feat by taking home the actual statue. Here, again, the safe money is on Chazelle who, at 32, is already filling up his trophy case. For those who want to split their picture/director votes, Jenkins and Lonergan both have a shot here. Just not a very good one.

Which seems like as good a time as any—and no, it won’t be the last—to express my unhappiness that Arrival, <a href="http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/mel-gibson-best-director-oscars.html">the best film of the year</a>, is not really in the running for any of the major awards. My best explanation for this is that the film ultimately found itself betwixt and between: too big to be the kind of arty film that critics love to champion, but not big enough (its domestic box office was almost exactly $100 million) to force its way into the conversation, à la Avatar, in a “the people have spoken” fashion. Regardless, it’s terrific. Go see it if you haven’t already.

Who will win: Damien Chazelle

Who ought to win: Denis Villeneuve

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="419" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/LLL_D09_01624_R/273036bf2.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">Emma Stone in La La Land (Lionsgate / Summit)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Actress

Nominees: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

This is an unusually strong category this year, and would be stronger still if Academy voters hadn’t briefly lost their minds and forgotten to nominate Amy Adams, who gave one of the year’s truly indelible performances in Arrival. Shame on you, Academy voters.

Emma Stone is the favorite here, and she’s a perfectly solid pick—even if I’d prefer Negga or Huppert. The strongest challenger is probably Portman, which would be extremely dispiriting. Jackie was not a good movie, nor was hers a particularly good performance. When it comes to portrayals of well-known figures from the 20th century, there are two ways an actor can go: pure mimesis (the accent, the mannerisms, maybe a little prosthetic enhancement) or actually digging beneath the surface to find the real person underneath the fame. The examples I typically think of are Cate Blanchett’s <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2005/05/the-movie-review-the-aviator/69440/">grating, empty portrait</a> of Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator (for the former category) and Christopher Plummer’s deft and nuanced work as Mike Wallace in The Insider (for the latter).

Portman’s portrait of Jackie Kennedy falls firmly into the former set. Still, if you want to bet against Stone, this is probably the way to go. There’s a reason Blanchett won for The Aviator and Plummer wasn’t even nominated for The Insider.

Who will win: Emma Stone

Who ought to win: Amy Adams (had she been nominated); of the nominees, Ruth Negga or Isabelle Huppert

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="420" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/MBTS_0194_11476815340/bb611145f.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Actor

Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)

What was that I was saying about how Hollywood can be forgiving if you have the right friends? Well this is particularly true if those friends are Matt Damon and your big brother Ben Affleck. One can debate the ways in which <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/01/why-the-allegations-against-casey-affleck-should-stand-alone/512234/">the cases of Nate Parker and Casey Affleck are similar and are different</a>, but the former’s early Oscar hopes vanished entirely and the latter’s appear to be chugging along unimpeded.

It helps Affleck considerably that his performance was genuinely remarkable and his competition is relatively weak, especially given the customary strength of the category. Denzel Washington has the best chance of pulling off an upset here—and it’s a pretty decent one. He’s hampered a bit by the fact that Fences (which Washington directed himself) has very much a “filmed play” quality to it, as does his notably theatrical performance. Gosling may have a (very) outside shot here, too. But if you’re looking for an upset in the major categories—or you just don’t feel good about picking Affleck—Washington is probably the way to go.

Who will win: Casey Affleck

Who ought to win: Casey Affleck

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="421" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/FEN_11554R/5020d8f55.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">Viola Davis in Fences (Paramount)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Every year, there is at least one performer who competes a weight class lower than he or she should in order to get a win. Last year, Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander both submitted what were really lead performances, but were both nominated for supporting actress—a category that Vikander wound up winning.

Viola Davis is no dummy. She’s been nominated for Oscars twice before without winning (for Doubt and The Help), and she wants to take home that statue. Which, as it happens, she is overwhelmingly likely to do. I said it last year and I’ll say it again. The Academy has to take firmer control of its own nominating process if we don’t want to see category fraud like this every season. Davis is a great actress, and was the best thing in Fences. But she should be competing—and perhaps winning—against Stone, Portman, Negga, and Huppert.

If you must bet against Davis, Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams have about equal chances of pulling off an upset—which is to say, very little chance at all.

Who will win: Viola Davis

Who ought to win: Viola Davis

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="420" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/moonlight_20151022_Moonlight_D07_C1_K1_0236_rgb/b67907a80.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">Mahershala Ali (left) in Moonlight (A24)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Well, at least the Academy realized that if it was going to nominate a performance in Nocturnal Animals it should be Michael Shannon’s slightly creepy lawman and not Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s totally forgettable outlaw. The fact that the latter was nominated—and won!—at the Golden Globes is yet further evidence (as if any were needed in this age) that voters are capable of doing strange and awful things.

Let’s assume that the universe has righted itself sufficiently to correct at least this injustice, by giving Mahershala Ali the award he so very clearly deserves. His work in Moonlight was nothing short of stunning.

Jeff Bridges is no doubt just happy to be nominated for his <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/08/hell-or-high-water-is-an-iconic-tale-of-the-modern-west/495551/">outstanding work</a> in Hell or High Water. But if you’re looking for someone to upset Ali, Dev Patel may have a very small shot. Or who knows? Maybe Aaron Taylor-Johnson can win again, this time by write-in vote. My capacity for astonishment has been pretty much exhausted of late.

Who will win: Mahershala Ali

Who ought to win: Mahershala Ali

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="420" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/MV5BNDE1Y2MwZmEtY2IxZC00MjM5LWE4YTEtNzY5YjNjMDFlMzQyL2ltYWdlXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMDc2NTEzMw._V1_SY1000_SX1500_AL_/7822f422a.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">A still from Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, 20th Century Women

It’s awfully nice to see The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos’s <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/05/the-lobster-a-dystopian-tour-de-force/482619/">dystopian tour de force</a>, get some attention here, though if it somehow manages an out-of-nowhere victory, I’ll eat … a lobster? That actually doesn’t sound so bad.

It’s also nice to see what could be a genuinely close race here, between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea. There are a number of ways of looking at this one. Will voters go with director Lonergan’s screenplay as an alternative to voting for Affleck as best actor? Or will any Affleck-related drag be able to sink the movie in a close race (like this one) but not in a possible blowout in the acting category? Will La La Land benefit, sweep-like, from its many awards? Or could Chazelle fatigue set in?

This is the category in which I am least confident of all, but I’m going with Manchester by the Sea by a nose.

What will win: Manchester by the Sea

What ought to win: La La Land

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="420" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/moonlight_20151014_Moonlight_W1D1_8679_rgb/bbc3951b4.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">A still from Moonlight (A24)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Moonlight

Apart from Supporting Actor, this is the category in which Moonlight—which is adapted from Tarell Alvin McCraney’s play In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue—is most likely to come away a winner. Arrival once looked like it had a solid shot here, like its fellow “thinking person’s sci-fi” movie—and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/12/why-em-her-em-is-the-best-film-of-the-year/282544/">best film of the year</a>—Her three years ago. But my best efforts notwithstanding, it seems to have lost any momentum it ever had.

If there’s an upset in the making, it’s likely to be either Hidden Figures or Lion. But neither seems particularly likely.

What will win: Moonlight

What ought to win: Arrival

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="418" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/LLL_D41_D42_06803_R/3d503e701.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">A still from La La Land (Lionsgate / Summit)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Greig Fraser (Lion), James Laxton (Moonlight), Rodrigo Prieto (Silence), Linus Sandgren (La La Land), Bradford Young (Arrival)

So what do we know about the cinematography award? We know that, because he is not nominated, Emmanuel Lubezki is probably not going to win for a fourth year in a row (following Gravity, Birdman, and The Revenant). And, nothing against Lubezki, but that’s probably a good thing. We also know that Roger Deakins, who has been nominated an incredible 13 times without ever winning, isn’t going to win—because he’s not nominated either. Nor is (three-time winner, nine-time nominee) Robert Richardson. Keeping track of the award this year is a little like watching the NBA Finals with LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green, and Kevin Love all sitting out hurt.

Bradford Young is the first African-American cinematographer ever nominated for the award, which is shocking, and he’d be my pick in a heartbeat for his magnificent work on (you guessed it) Arrival. (He also shot my two favorite films of 2014, Selma and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/01/a-most-violent-year-is-a-most-extraordinary-film/384392/">A Most Violent Year</a>.) But here, again, Arrival doesn’t seem likely to get much love.The safest bet, as so often this year, is probably on La La Land and its cinematographer Linus Sandgren. If you want to look elsewhere, Lion probably has the best shot at an upset. Or partisans of Moonlight and Arrival can just cross their fingers and take their chances.

Who will win: Linus Sandgren

Who ought to win: Bradford Young

<hr />
<figure><img alt="" height="420" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/zootopia_270.0_107.00_0341/9bc0a44bc.jpg" width="630" />
<figcaption class="credit">A still from Zootopia (Disney)</figcaption>
</figure>

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, Zootopia

One of the most remarkable inversions in recent cinema is the way Pixar and Disney Animation—which are both owned by the same company and run by the same executives—have essentially switched places. (I’ll be writing more about this soon.) Disney scored two nominations in the Animated Feature category this year, with Zootopia and Moana. Pixar, meanwhile, couldn’t manage a nod for Finding Dory, despite the fact that it was the second-highest grossing movie of the year behind Rogue One. Go figure.

It was actually a banner year for animated movies, especially if you managed to avoid the truly awful Sing. The Red Turtle is a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/01/the-elegant-simplicity-of-the-red-turtle/514190/">gorgeous, almost-silent fable</a>. Moana is a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/11/moana-a-big-beautiful-disney-smash/508568/">classic Disney musical showstopper</a>. And Kubo and the Two Strings may be the best stop-motion marvel yet produced by the always excellent Laika (Coraline, ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls.)

But barring a borderline-shocking upset by Kubo, the Oscar will be going to Zootopia. Which is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/03/disneys-zootopia-is-a-giddy-delight/472197/">exactly as it should be</a>.

What will win: Zootopia

What should win: Zootopia

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--- !ruby/object:Feedjira::Parser::AtomEntry
entry_id: tag:thewire.com,2017:50-517677
content: "\n\n \n<figure class=\"lead-image\">\n\n \n \n \n \n
 \ \n <img\n src=\"http://cdn.thewire.com/media/img/mt/2017/02/LLL_D33_05656_R/lead_large.jpg\"\n
 \ alt=\"Image \"\n title=\"My 2017 Oscar Predictions:
 A Lot of &lt;em&gt;La La Land&lt;/em&gt;\"\n >\n \n \n
 \ \n\n\n \n \n\n</figure>\n\nIt’s that time of year again, when we can
 all grouse about the inanity of the Oscars: how the Academy ignores blockbusters
 or ignores indie films or ignores people of color. Only this time, there seems less
 to grouse about than usual. There are snubs here and there of course (cough, Amy
 Adams), and actors who through error or pretense find themselves in the wrong
 categories. But overall the Academy did a pretty credible job this time—credible
 enough that for this year I’m abandoning my customary categories of “who was nominated
 but shouldn’t have been” and “who wasn’t nominated but should have been.”\n\nBut
 who is going to win? Before attempting to answer that question, I should
 disclose that I’ve gone 25 for 30 on my picks over the last three years (you can
 find them <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/02/my-2016-oscar-predictions/471027/\">here</a>,
 <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/02/my-2015-oscar-predictions/385655/\">here</a>,
 and <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/02/my-2014-oscar-predictions/284125/\">here</a>),
 but I missed on Best Picture last year. (I thought The Revenant would beat
 Spotlight, and I was delighted to be wrong.) It is also perhaps worth noting
 that I was so spectacularly certain that Avatar would beat The Hurt
 Locker back in 2010 that I wrote an <a href=\"https://newrepublic.com/article/73539/buy-me-love\">entire
 article</a> on the subject. (In that case, I was even happier to be wrong.) Also,
 as before, I’m only going through ten of the top categories, so if you need help
 with your picks for sound editing or live-action short, you’ll have to seek assistance
 elsewhere.\n\nSo keep all that in mind. As always, I obviously cannot condone
 any form of gambling, and will in no way consider it my fault if anyone happens
 to lose money based on my advice. Anyone who makes a little scratch, by
 contrast, and might be inclined to share it with their Oscar Whisperer, will find
 me easy enough to track down. Those curious about my own end-of-the-year awards,
 some of which are notably eccentric, can find them <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/12/the-best-movies-of-2016/511049/\">here</a>.\n\n<hr
 />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"438\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/xLLL_D13_02600_R/988176bbe.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">A still from La La Land (Lionsgate
 / Summit)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest Picture\n\nNominees:
 Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or
 High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester
 by the Sea, Moonlight\n\nThis has long been, and remains, La
 La Land’s race to lose. It’s become fashionable to lament that this is a bad
 thing and it would be better if Moonlight were to win instead. There are
 perhaps good arguments to be made on this score, but most of the arguments being
 made aren’t very good.\n\nIt is without question a promising sign that Moonlight,
 a movie about the romance between two black men coming of age in inner-city Miami,
 directed by a black man, is not only a Best Picture nominee but a genuine contender
 to win. This is especially true given the Academy’s <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/oscarssowhite\">much-noted</a>
 shortcomings over the last couple of years.\n\nBut the widespread critique
 that La La Land is “only” the frontrunner because it is about Hollywood’s
 love for itself dramatically shortchanges Damien Chazelle’s film, which is a tremendously
 ambitious undertaking on its own terms, <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/12/la-la-land-review-damien-chazelle-ryan-gosling-emma-stone/510092/\">novel
 and nostalgic in equal measure</a>. This is not The Artist. Should La
 La Land come away with the statue, as I strongly suspect it will, it will mean
 nothing other than that it was a terrific film.\n\nIf you’re looking for
 the upset, definitely go with Moonlight. If you’re looking for a really
 big upset, try Manchester by the Sea or Hidden Figures. If you
 want an upset even bigger than that, buy a lottery ticket.\n\nWhat
 will win: La La Land\n\nWhat ought to win: Arrival\n\n<hr
 />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"419\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/LLL_D10_01983_R/33a75c2d1.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">Damien Chazelle on the set of La
 La Land (Dale Robinette / Lionsgate / Summit)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest
 Director \n\nNominees: Damien Chazelle (La
 La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry
 Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester
 by the Sea), Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)\n\nThe
 big surprise here, of course, is that Mel Gibson was nominated, despite the facts
 that a) Hacksaw Ridge was good but not great; and b) not so long ago, Gibson
 had a very-well-earned reputation as a depraved maniac. But Hollywood can be forgiving,
 especially <a href=\"http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/mel-gibson-best-director-oscars.html\">if
 you have the right friends</a>.\n\nIn any case, Mel will not be repeating
 his Braveheart feat by taking home the actual statue. Here, again, the
 safe money is on Chazelle who, at 32, is already filling up his trophy case. For
 those who want to split their picture/director votes, Jenkins and Lonergan both
 have a shot here. Just not a very good one.\n\nWhich seems like as good a
 time as any—and no, it won’t be the last—to express my unhappiness that Arrival,
 <a href=\"http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/mel-gibson-best-director-oscars.html\">the
 best film of the year</a>, is not really in the running for any of the major awards.
 My best explanation for this is that the film ultimately found itself betwixt and
 between: too big to be the kind of arty film that critics love to champion, but
 not big enough (its domestic box office was almost exactly $100 million) to force
 its way into the conversation, à la Avatar, in a “the people have spoken”
 fashion. Regardless, it’s terrific. Go see it if you haven’t already.\n\nWho
 will win: Damien Chazelle\n\nWho ought to win: Denis
 Villeneuve\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"419\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/LLL_D09_01624_R/273036bf2.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">Emma Stone in La La Land (Lionsgate
 / Summit)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest Actress\n\nNominees:
 Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving),
 Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La
 La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)\n\nThis
 is an unusually strong category this year, and would be stronger still if Academy
 voters hadn’t briefly lost their minds and forgotten to nominate Amy Adams, who
 gave one of the year’s truly indelible performances in Arrival. Shame on
 you, Academy voters.\n\nEmma Stone is the favorite here, and she’s a perfectly
 solid pick—even if I’d prefer Negga or Huppert. The strongest challenger is probably
 Portman, which would be extremely dispiriting. Jackie was not a good movie,
 nor was hers a particularly good performance. When it comes to portrayals of well-known
 figures from the 20th century, there are two ways an actor can go: pure mimesis
 (the accent, the mannerisms, maybe a little prosthetic enhancement) or actually
 digging beneath the surface to find the real person underneath the fame. The examples
 I typically think of are Cate Blanchett’s <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2005/05/the-movie-review-the-aviator/69440/\">grating,
 empty portrait</a> of Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator (for the former category)
 and Christopher Plummer’s deft and nuanced work as Mike Wallace in The Insider
 (for the latter).\n\nPortman’s portrait of Jackie Kennedy falls firmly into
 the former set. Still, if you want to bet against Stone, this is probably the way
 to go. There’s a reason Blanchett won for The Aviator and Plummer wasn’t
 even nominated for The Insider.\n\nWho will win: Emma
 Stone\n\nWho ought to win: Amy Adams (had she been nominated);
 of the nominees, Ruth Negga or Isabelle Huppert\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img
 alt=\"\" height=\"420\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/MBTS_0194_11476815340/bb611145f.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">Casey Affleck in Manchester by
 the Sea (Amazon Studios)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest Actor\n\nNominees:
 Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw
 Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen
 (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)\n\nWhat
 was that I was saying about how Hollywood can be forgiving if you have the right
 friends? Well this is particularly true if those friends are Matt Damon and your
 big brother Ben Affleck. One can debate the ways in which <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/01/why-the-allegations-against-casey-affleck-should-stand-alone/512234/\">the
 cases of Nate Parker and Casey Affleck are similar and are different</a>, but the
 former’s early Oscar hopes vanished entirely and the latter’s appear to be chugging
 along unimpeded.\n\nIt helps Affleck considerably that his performance was
 genuinely remarkable and his competition is relatively weak, especially given the
 customary strength of the category. Denzel Washington has the best chance of pulling
 off an upset here—and it’s a pretty decent one. He’s hampered a bit by the fact
 that Fences (which Washington directed himself) has very much a “filmed
 play” quality to it, as does his notably theatrical performance. Gosling may have
 a (very) outside shot here, too. But if you’re looking for an upset in the major
 categories—or you just don’t feel good about picking Affleck—Washington is probably
 the way to go.\n\nWho will win: Casey Affleck\n\nWho
 ought to win: Casey Affleck\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"421\"
 src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/FEN_11554R/5020d8f55.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">Viola Davis in Fences (Paramount)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest
 Supporting Actress\n\nNominees: Viola Davis (Fences),
 Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia
 Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)\n\nEvery
 year, there is at least one performer who competes a weight class lower than he
 or she should in order to get a win. Last year, Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander
 both submitted what were really lead performances, but were both nominated for supporting
 actress—a category that Vikander wound up winning.\n\nViola Davis is no dummy.
 She’s been nominated for Oscars twice before without winning (for Doubt and
 The Help), and she wants to take home that statue. Which, as it happens,
 she is overwhelmingly likely to do. I said it last year and I’ll say it again. The
 Academy has to take firmer control of its own nominating process if we don’t want
 to see category fraud like this every season. Davis is a great actress, and was
 the best thing in Fences. But she should be competing—and perhaps winning—against
 Stone, Portman, Negga, and Huppert.\n\nIf you must bet against Davis, Naomie
 Harris and Michelle Williams have about equal chances of pulling off an upset—which
 is to say, very little chance at all.\n\nWho will win: Viola
 Davis\n\nWho ought to win: Viola Davis\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img
 alt=\"\" height=\"420\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/moonlight_20151022_Moonlight_D07_C1_K1_0236_rgb/b67907a80.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">Mahershala Ali (left) in Moonlight
 (A24)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest Supporting Actor\n\nNominees:
 Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell
 or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev
 Patel (Lion), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)\n\nWell,
 at least the Academy realized that if it was going to nominate a performance in
 Nocturnal Animals it should be Michael Shannon’s slightly creepy lawman
 and not Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s totally forgettable outlaw. The fact that the latter
 was nominated—and won!—at the Golden Globes is yet further evidence (as
 if any were needed in this age) that voters are capable of doing strange and awful
 things.\n\nLet’s assume that the universe has righted itself sufficiently
 to correct at least this injustice, by giving Mahershala Ali the award he so very
 clearly deserves. His work in Moonlight was nothing short of stunning.\n\nJeff
 Bridges is no doubt just happy to be nominated for his <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/08/hell-or-high-water-is-an-iconic-tale-of-the-modern-west/495551/\">outstanding
 work</a> in Hell or High Water. But if you’re looking for someone to upset
 Ali, Dev Patel may have a very small shot. Or who knows? Maybe Aaron Taylor-Johnson
 can win again, this time by write-in vote. My capacity for astonishment has been
 pretty much exhausted of late.\n\nWho will win: Mahershala
 Ali\n\nWho ought to win: Mahershala Ali\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img
 alt=\"\" height=\"420\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/MV5BNDE1Y2MwZmEtY2IxZC00MjM5LWE4YTEtNzY5YjNjMDFlMzQyL2ltYWdlXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMDc2NTEzMw._V1_SY1000_SX1500_AL_/7822f422a.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">A still from Manchester by the
 Sea (Amazon Studios)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest Original Screenplay\n\nNominees:
 Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea,
 20th Century Women\n\nIt’s awfully nice to see The Lobster,
 Yorgos Lanthimos’s <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/05/the-lobster-a-dystopian-tour-de-force/482619/\">dystopian
 tour de force</a>, get some attention here, though if it somehow manages an out-of-nowhere
 victory, I’ll eat … a lobster? That actually doesn’t sound so bad.\n\nIt’s
 also nice to see what could be a genuinely close race here, between La La Land
 and Manchester by the Sea. There are a number of ways of looking at this
 one. Will voters go with director Lonergan’s screenplay as an alternative to voting
 for Affleck as best actor? Or will any Affleck-related drag be able to sink the
 movie in a close race (like this one) but not in a possible blowout in the acting
 category? Will La La Land benefit, sweep-like, from its many awards? Or
 could Chazelle fatigue set in?\n\nThis is the category in which I am least
 confident of all, but I’m going with Manchester by the Sea by a nose.\n\nWhat
 will win: Manchester by the Sea\n\nWhat ought to
 win: La La Land\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"420\"
 src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/moonlight_20151014_Moonlight_W1D1_8679_rgb/bbc3951b4.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">A still from Moonlight (A24)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest
 Adapted Screenplay\n\nNominees: Arrival, Fences,
 Hidden Figures, Lion, Moonlight\n\nApart from Supporting Actor, this
 is the category in which Moonlight—which is adapted from Tarell Alvin McCraney’s
 play In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue—is most likely to come away a winner.
 Arrival once looked like it had a solid shot here, like its fellow “thinking
 person’s sci-fi” movie—and <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/12/why-em-her-em-is-the-best-film-of-the-year/282544/\">best
 film of the year</a>—Her three years ago. But my best efforts notwithstanding,
 it seems to have lost any momentum it ever had.\n\nIf there’s an upset in
 the making, it’s likely to be either Hidden Figures or Lion. But
 neither seems particularly likely.\n\nWhat will win: Moonlight\n\nWhat
 ought to win: Arrival\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"418\"
 src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/LLL_D41_D42_06803_R/3d503e701.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">A still from La La Land (Lionsgate
 / Summit)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest Cinematography\n\nNominees:
 Greig Fraser (Lion), James Laxton (Moonlight), Rodrigo
 Prieto (Silence), Linus Sandgren (La La Land), Bradford Young
 (Arrival)\n\nSo what do we know about the cinematography award?
 We know that, because he is not nominated, Emmanuel Lubezki is probably not going
 to win for a fourth year in a row (following Gravity, Birdman,
 and The Revenant). And, nothing against Lubezki, but that’s probably a
 good thing. We also know that Roger Deakins, who has been nominated an incredible
 13 times without ever winning, isn’t going to win—because he’s not nominated either.
 Nor is (three-time winner, nine-time nominee) Robert Richardson. Keeping track of
 the award this year is a little like watching the NBA Finals with LeBron James,
 Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green, and Kevin Love all sitting
 out hurt.\n\nBradford Young is the first African-American cinematographer
 ever nominated for the award, which is shocking, and he’d be my pick in a heartbeat
 for his magnificent work on (you guessed it) Arrival. (He also shot my
 two favorite films of 2014, Selma and <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/01/a-most-violent-year-is-a-most-extraordinary-film/384392/\">A
 Most Violent Year</a>.) But here, again, Arrival doesn’t seem likely
 to get much love.The safest bet, as so often this year, is probably on La La
 Land and its cinematographer Linus Sandgren. If you want to look elsewhere,
 Lion probably has the best shot at an upset. Or partisans of Moonlight
 and Arrival can just cross their fingers and take their chances.\n\nWho
 will win: Linus Sandgren\n\nWho ought to win: Bradford
 Young\n\n<hr />\n<figure><img alt=\"\" height=\"420\" src=\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2017/02/zootopia_270.0_107.00_0341/9bc0a44bc.jpg\"
 width=\"630\" />\n<figcaption class=\"credit\">A still from Zootopia (Disney)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\nBest
 Animated Feature\n\nNominees: Kubo and the
 Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle,
 Zootopia\n\nOne of the most remarkable inversions in recent cinema
 is the way Pixar and Disney Animation—which are both owned by the same company and
 run by the same executives—have essentially switched places. (I’ll be writing more
 about this soon.) Disney scored two nominations in the Animated Feature category
 this year, with Zootopia and Moana. Pixar, meanwhile, couldn’t
 manage a nod for Finding Dory, despite the fact that it was the second-highest
 grossing movie of the year behind Rogue One. Go figure.\n\nIt was
 actually a banner year for animated movies, especially if you managed to avoid the
 truly awful Sing. The Red Turtle is a <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/01/the-elegant-simplicity-of-the-red-turtle/514190/\">gorgeous,
 almost-silent fable</a>. Moana is a <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/11/moana-a-big-beautiful-disney-smash/508568/\">classic
 Disney musical showstopper</a>. And Kubo and the Two Strings may be the
 best stop-motion marvel yet produced by the always excellent Laika (Coraline,
 ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls.)\n\nBut barring a borderline-shocking
 upset by Kubo, the Oscar will be going to Zootopia. Which is <a
 href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/03/disneys-zootopia-is-a-giddy-delight/472197/\">exactly
 as it should be</a>.\n\nWhat will win: Zootopia\n\nWhat
 should win: Zootopia\n"
author: Christopher Orr
title_type:
published: 2017-02-24 16:18:00.000000000 Z
summary: Who will win at the 89th Academy Awards?
links:
- https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/02/my-2017-oscar-predictions/517677/
title: 'My 2017 Oscar Predictions: A Lot of La La Land'
carlessian_info:
 news_filer_version: 2
 newspaper: US general30
 macro_region: USA
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categories:
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url: https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/02/my-2017-oscar-predictions/517677/

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